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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 23 games
52%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 21 game
52%
Sven
Sven
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 18 games
44%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 36 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 35 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 30 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 27 games
37%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 884 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 410 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 294 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
382 picks · 798 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
341 picks · 675 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 476 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 381 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
nouns 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGunnar
55% · 171 game43% · 213 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuma
50% · 123 games51% · 286 games
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
55% · 237 games48% · 220 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickCopy
54% · 309 games47% · 120 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
47% · 317 games52% · 318 games
SveniNSaNiA
Sven
Game 2prediction missed37:28
nouns 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by nouns in 51:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
43% · 95 games53% · 130 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
52% · 219 games50% · 227 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
54% · 96 games48% · 134 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
49% · 348 games51% · 156 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
44% · 66 games56% · 177 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct35:41
nouns 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCopy
39% · 83 games53% · 166 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuma
48% · 103 games64% · 140 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
43% · 127 games59% · 116 games
Doom33
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerLelis
48% · 74 games50% · 62 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfireFly
44% · 130 games44% · 33 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3