ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangzhiganluloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 15 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 10 games
Windranger
Gunnar · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
K1 · 8 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 7 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
Yangzhiganlu
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
229 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
228 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 415 bans
Phoenix
194 picks · 257 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 415 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 278 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
nouns 78%Yangzhiganlu 22%
The model gave 78% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:50.
Game 2prediction missed21:29
nouns 78%Yangzhiganlu 22%
The model gave 78% on nouns — the game was taken by Yangzhiganlu in 42:58.
Game 3prediction correct19:15
nouns 78%Yangzhiganlu 22%
The model gave 78% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:21.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 78%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3