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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
NPC's IRLloss 1:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NPC's IRL

Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Focus · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
0%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 15 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
588 picks · 927 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 415 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 654 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 935 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 644 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 528 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
373 picks · 231 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
NPC's IRL 28%Inner Circle 72%
The model gave 72% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFocus
46% · 341 game46% · 155 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerNande
55% · 92 games60% · 320 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAtoufix
44% · 81 game59% · 38 games
Largolaise
Largo
Jakiro
JakiroSsaSpartan
45% · 455 games46% · 404 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
53% · 52 games
LionJing
Lion
Game 2prediction missed32:12
NPC's IRL 30%Inner Circle 70%
The model gave 70% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by NPC's IRL in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
53% · 168 games49% · 142 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Huskar
HuskarNande
50% · 75 games49% · 92 games
Sniperniche
Sniper
Jakiro
JakiroSsaSpartan
51% · 457 games55% · 56 games
Razorlaise
Razor
Tusk
TuskAtoufix
45% · 362 games48% · 451 game
WarlockSe
Warlock
52% · 321 game
Shadow DemonJing
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct21:47
NPC's IRL 28%Inner Circle 72%
The model gave 72% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
44% · 78 games54% · 306 games
Puckniche
Puck
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNande
50% · 219 games61% · 74 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
45% · 332 games48% · 301 game
TinyJing
Tiny
Tusk
TuskAtoufix
47% · 575 games55% · 210 games
Slardarlaise
Slardar
51% · 313 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 86%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3