?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Flameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusksignature
Elmisho · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Genek · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
MoOz · 8 games
63%

Flame

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 5 games
80%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 2 games
50%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Argius · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
449 picks · 422 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
439 picks · 223 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 933 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 223 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
282 picks · 659 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
279 picks · 453 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Flame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
OG LATAM 61%Flame 39%
The model gave 61% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCostabile
53% · 136 games47% · 59 games
TinkerAdrx
Tinker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
55% · 171 game46% · 285 games
TerrorbladeArgius
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaFCR
53% · 64 games47% · 216 games
Queen of PainS1RENM
Queen of Pain
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
53% · 74 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGenek
54% · 115 games
Game 2prediction correct27:27
OG LATAM 63%Flame 37%
The model gave 63% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCostabile
51% · 136 games49% · 240 games
Nature's ProphetArgius
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPiPi
40% · 178 games51% · 387 games
Storm SpiritS1RENM
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
59% · 262 games46% · 398 games
PangolierAdrx
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskGenek
50% · 339 games
Bane
BanePanda
56% · 110 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 73%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2