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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
OG LATAMloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 3 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
MoOz · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
DarkMago · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
100%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
500 picks · 493 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 572 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
389 picks · 188 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
303 picks · 555 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
276 picks · 386 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
269 picks · 158 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
264 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 473 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:19
OG LATAM 26%Shopify Rebellion 74%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
53% · 190 games52% · 164 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
56% · 231 game45% · 146 games
MedusaDavai
Medusa
Slardar
SlardarDarkMago
46% · 90 games43% · 405 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 147 games53% · 96 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskElmisho
49% · 263 games56% · 110 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct6:38
OG LATAM 24%Shopify Rebellion 76%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
43% · 240 games53% · 126 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDarkMago
42% · 117 games54% · 180 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Tinker
TinkerMoOz
51% · 79 games55% · 78 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Underlord
UnderlordILICH-
47% · 86 games51% · 161 game
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanElmisho
44% · 120 games62% · 97 games
Elder TitanSkem
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 88%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2