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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Sin Compromisoloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusk
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
50%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 6 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 5 games
20%
Silencer
Silencer
Elmisho · 5 games
40%

Team Sin Compromiso

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Genek · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Lina
Lina
Parker · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Panda · 3 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 605 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
472 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 779 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 516 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
344 picks · 793 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 299 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
322 picks · 357 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 69%
Hero pool strength60% Team Sin Compromiso
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Sin Compromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:26
OG LATAM 46%Team Sin Compromiso 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Sin Compromiso — the game was taken by Team Sin Compromiso in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
45% · 208 games52% · 90 games
SvenParker
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaiLung
60% · 261 game44% · 229 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterILICH-
52% · 186 games49% · 188 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMoOz
50% · 161 game45% · 348 games
TinyGenek
Tiny
Oracle
OracleElmisho
56% · 62 games45% · 23 games
DazzlePanda
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed28:22
OG LATAM 41%Team Sin Compromiso 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Sin Compromiso — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
52% · 108 games49% · 246 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTaiLung
59% · 305 games50% · 301 game
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaILICH-
44% · 119 games46% · 146 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
54% · 100 games50% · 232 games
Dark WillowGenek
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskMoOz
48% · 342 games48% · 49 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Game 3prediction missed5:4
OG LATAM 44%Team Sin Compromiso 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Sin Compromiso — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 51:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaK1
44% · 114 games38% · 74 games
DisruptorStingeR
Disruptor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTaiLung
53% · 270 games60% · 334 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskElmisho
46% · 209 games50% · 573 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
47% · 375 games54% · 63 games
Death ProphetSacred
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMoOz
54% · 142 games50% · 66 games
RikiGenek
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sin Compromiso · 60%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3