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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:3
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:3
1w Teamwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 14 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Cloud · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
484 picks · 525 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
466 picks · 508 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
410 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 368 bans
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
369 picks · 253 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
368 picks · 786 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 530 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
OG 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShad
60% · 162 games41% · 81 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
51% · 89 games49% · 81 game
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
51% · 198 games53% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaLelis
48% · 48 games46% · 169 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Tusk
TuskDaze
50% · 241 game49% · 173 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct13:33
OG 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShad
53% · 265 games56% · 129 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
50% · 61 game47% · 161 game
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
53% · 124 games47% · 311 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroLelis
45% · 235 games50% · 218 games
Nature's Prophetkasane
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskDaze
49% · 383 games51% · 249 games
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct14:45
OG 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetShad
49% · 213 games58% · 154 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendStormstormer
46% · 103 games55% · 52 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
44% · 34 games58% · 115 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeLelis
48% · 49 games48% · 126 games
Ember Spiritswedenstrong
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marcin0tail
45% · 144 games49% · 96 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series result1w Team 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3