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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 5 games
80%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 5 games
80%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 589 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 902 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 203 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
255 picks · 340 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
OG 43%AS Monaco Gambit 57%
The model gave 57% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by OG in 33:57.
Game 2prediction missed30:13
OG 43%AS Monaco Gambit 57%
The model gave 57% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by OG in 30:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 57%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2