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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 34 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 32 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 28 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 20 games
65%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 658 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 368 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 576 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 187 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
291 picks · 208 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 104 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
OG 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
58% · 136 games51% · 321 game
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
46% · 404 games48% · 272 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsWisper
50% · 335 games52% · 409 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
47% · 294 games52% · 278 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickAri
48% · 402 games48% · 291 game
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed16:32
OG 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
43% · 174 games55% · 94 games
Naga Siren23savage
Naga Siren
Clinkz
ClinkzTimado
46% · 60 games55% · 168 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarWisper
52% · 106 games49% · 146 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeb
55% · 89 games46% · 121 game
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickAri
43% · 281 game57% · 181 game
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2