?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 16 games
63%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 9 games
67%

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 479 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
327 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
273 picks · 393 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 362 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
264 picks · 180 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 474 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:22
OG 48%Azure Ray 52%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by OG in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
46% · 250 games51% · 160 games
Lunalou
Luna
Mars
MarsWisper
50% · 175 games49% · 431 game
PangolierOri
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
52% · 242 games47% · 181 game
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickAri
42% · 430 games60% · 95 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaCeb
55% · 186 games50% · 416 games
Techies天命
Techies
Game 2prediction correct14:31
OG 49%Azure Ray 51%
The model gave 51% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 160 games51% · 214 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWisper
53% · 94 games48% · 91 game
RazorOri
Razor
Windranger
Windrangerbzm
46% · 111 games52% · 164 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusCeb
48% · 171 game52% · 20 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
RubickAri
47% · 198 games52% · 245 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2