DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubicksignature
Taiga · 19 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 15 games
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 9 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 9 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
982 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 941 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 522 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 349 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1117 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:35
OG 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by beastcoast in 29:29.
Game 2prediction correct30:6
OG 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2