DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EGEnd Gameloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
Enchantress
xNova · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 9 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 9 games
End Game
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 712 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 868 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% End Game
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
OG 89%End Game 11%
The model gave 89% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 89%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1