Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Entitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Misha · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
405 picks · 410 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 373 bans
Rubick
376 picks · 255 bans
Mirana
295 picks · 304 bans
Treant Protector
247 picks · 297 bans
Snapfire
235 picks · 121 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:34
OG 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 46:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Series resultEntity 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1