Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Entityloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Misha · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
365 picks · 252 bans
Mirana
293 picks · 301 bans
Treant Protector
240 picks · 291 bans
Snapfire
231 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total55% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:30
OG 45%Entity 55%
The model gave 55% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 1:04:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 55%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1