Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
Tiny
bzm · 15 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 14 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
576 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
477 picks · 1166 bans
Doom
472 picks · 877 bans
Ember Spirit
425 picks · 1073 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 863 bans
Mirana
398 picks · 216 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
OG 62%Entity 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:57.
Game 2prediction correct37:10
OG 62%Entity 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2