ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
Iosignature
Ceb · 9 games
Magnussignature
Ari · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 6 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
338 picks · 509 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 434 bans
Lion
285 picks · 247 bans
Vengeful Spirit
284 picks · 202 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
Magnus
255 picks · 408 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 363 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 743 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% OG
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total70% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
OG 70%Entity 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 44:18.
Game 2prediction correct33:13
OG 70%Entity 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:05.
Game 3prediction correct32:15
OG 70%Entity 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 70%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3