ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 21 game
Razorsignature
ATF · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
726 picks · 548 bans
Puck
515 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
450 picks · 574 bans
Marci
428 picks · 761 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
355 picks · 384 bans
Zeus
318 picks · 363 bans
Razor
313 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
OG 74%Fnatic 26%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 25:37.
Game 2prediction correct28:13
OG 74%Fnatic 26%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2