ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 24 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 22 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
475 picks · 204 bans
Batrider
447 picks · 798 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 595 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 634 bans
Rubick
415 picks · 173 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 730 bans
Mars
375 picks · 605 bans
Techies
366 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
OG 54%G2 Invictus Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:26.
Game 2prediction correct28:18
OG 54%G2 Invictus Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2