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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
47%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 12 games
92%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 21 game
62%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 450 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
487 picks · 700 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 291 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 534 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
392 picks · 547 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 630 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 620 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
359 picks · 749 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
OG 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYuragi
45% · 12 games52% · 89 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Tiny
Tinybzm
45% · 158 games47% · 35 games
Dawnbreakerdyrachyo
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
SlardarATF
62% · 19 games59% · 34 games
EnigmaAce
Enigma
Viper
ViperTaiga
49% · 78 games48% · 93 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Zeus
ZeusMisha
54% · 16 games49% · 32 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:6
OG 59%Gaimin Gladiators 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYuragi
45% · 46 games50% · 6 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarATF
36% · 10 games48% · 133 games
Dragon KnightBOOM
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckbzm
53% · 144 games54% · 14 games
AlchemistAce
Alchemist
Zeus
ZeusTaiga
57% · 16 games58% · 28 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Marci
MarciMisha
60% · 16 games43% · 51 game
ViperSeleri
Viper
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2