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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
25%

GamerLegion

Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 18 games
33%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Speeed · 17 games
41%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 15 games
47%
Largo
Largooften banned
Fayde · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 369 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 214 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 657 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 356 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 350 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 445 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
313 picks · 231 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
292 picks · 333 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% GamerLegion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
OG 55%GamerLegion 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
46% · 207 games59% · 177 games
Shadow FiendGhost
Shadow Fiend
Lina
LinaYopaj
49% · 48 games49% · 122 games
LargoRCY
Largo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRaven
50% · 129 games33% · 11 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
48% · 182 games51% · 148 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
48% · 118 games52% · 226 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:13
OG 57%GamerLegion 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
50% · 284 games50% · 291 game
Shadow FiendGhost
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyYopaj
48% · 559 games57% · 337 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRaven
50% · 146 games52% · 306 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
49% · 198 games46% · 145 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
50% · 98 games49% · 206 games
ClockwerkSpeeed
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 61%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2