The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
OGwin 3:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 3:1
GBGrind Backloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Tiny
Yopaj · 15 games
Windranger
Natsumi · 14 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 13 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Primal Beast
Force · 12 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 11 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 11 games
Jakiro
Skem · 10 games
Grind Back
Tiny
Cije · 3 games
Bane
ace12 · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Snapfireoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Doomoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
638 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
592 picks · 334 bans
Phoenix
465 picks · 544 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 365 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 510 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 399 bans
Puck
331 picks · 1017 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
OG 64%Grind Back 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by Grind Back in 59:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverNatsumi
Doom23savage
ViperYopaj
Storm SpiritKen
AxeRaven
Dark SeerForce
Treant ProtectorSkem
Keeper of the LightQ
HoodwinkTims
BaneOli
Game 2prediction correct24:13
OG 65%Grind Back 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 48:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaNatsumi
Luna23savage
UnderlordRaven
PuckKen
Void SpiritYopaj
LargoForce
Treant ProtectorSkem
TuskQ
WindrangerTims
EnchantressOli
Game 3prediction correct42:10
OG 64%Grind Back 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNatsumi
Shadow Fiend23savage
Void SpiritYopaj
SnapfireForce
DoomRaven
PuckKen
HoodwinkTims
PhoenixOli
DisruptorSkem
TuskQ
Game 4prediction correct49:28
OG 63%Grind Back 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:08:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomNatsumi
Monkey King23savage
ViperRaven
Storm SpiritKen
Ember SpiritYopaj
LargoForce
HoodwinkTims
ClockwerkQ
Treant ProtectorSkem
LichOli
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 78%
Series resultOG 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4