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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 28 games
61%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
420 picks · 687 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 646 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 362 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
393 picks · 323 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 464 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
380 picks · 839 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 600 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 42%
Hero pool strength60% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
OG 77%JustBetter 23%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 164 games56% · 219 games
MedusaFocus
Medusa
Doom
DoomWisper
39% · 257 games58% · 138 games
LeshracThuG
Leshrac
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
54% · 127 games51% · 252 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
42% · 112 games47% · 127 games
GyrocopterSsaSpartan
Gyrocopter
Batrider
BatriderCeb
50% · 211 games53% · 135 games
GrimstrokeAstral
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct33:23
OG 77%JustBetter 23%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 98 games49% · 89 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
53% · 164 games48% · 239 games
TimbersawThuG
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierWisper
50% · 317 games53% · 185 games
MagnusSkyLark
Magnus
Tiny
TinyAri
52% · 218 games51% · 182 games
PugnaSsaSpartan
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorCeb
48% · 138 games47% · 240 games
LionAstral
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 91%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2