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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 26 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 23 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
47%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 19 games
58%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
621 picks · 308 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
537 picks · 545 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1112 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
378 picks · 197 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 608 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
OG 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:59.
Game 2prediction missed45:40
OG 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by OG in 59:22.
Game 3prediction missed41:23
OG 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by OG in 34:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 63%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3