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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 5 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Egor · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
903 picks · 620 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
641 picks · 446 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
539 picks · 866 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
482 picks · 329 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
469 picks · 1013 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 316 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
OG 73%MoneyMakers 27%
The model gave 73% on OG — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
50% · 113 games49% · 448 games
Nature's ProphetLukas
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaDM
48% · 144 games50% · 184 games
LycanBb3px
Lycan
Batrider
Batriderbzm
54% · 159 games47% · 267 games
ZeusEgor
Zeus
Rubick
RubickChuvash
48% · 385 games57% · 299 games
DisruptorBignum
Disruptor
Tiny
TinyTaiga
43% · 451 game56% · 54 games
Elder TitanCeMaTheSlayeR
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct38:8
OG 75%MoneyMakers 25%
The model gave 75% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuragi
54% · 143 games55% · 92 games
UrsaLukas
Ursa
Invoker
Invokerbzm
41% · 148 games46% · 183 games
Death ProphetEgor
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
51% · 156 games57% · 182 games
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressChuvash
49% · 273 games50% · 254 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
51% · 71 game48% · 80 games
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct29:11
OG 74%MoneyMakers 26%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuragi
50% · 40 games37% · 121 game
Drow RangerLukas
Drow Ranger
Zeus
Zeusbzm
48% · 126 games53% · 198 games
TimbersawBb3px
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
53% · 163 games56% · 130 games
RikiEgor
Riki
Mirana
MiranaTaiga
54% · 260 games50% · 278 games
EnchantressBignum
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickChuvash
48% · 393 games49% · 255 games
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 89%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3