?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
bengan · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Supream^ · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 664 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
409 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 502 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
391 picks · 864 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
368 picks · 160 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:14
OG 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
57% · 101 game45% · 74 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Razor
RazorWisper
47% · 78 games46% · 118 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
59% · 111 games43% · 79 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Tusk
TuskAri
56% · 103 games47% · 29 games
Oraclebengan
Oracle
Io
IoCeb
59% · 64 games41% · 157 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct28:29
OG 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 125 games45% · 139 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
49% · 157 games53% · 30 games
HuskarSupream^
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarWisper
50% · 46 games48% · 176 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Io
IoCeb
53% · 59 games53% · 91 game
Monkey KingNARMAN
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderAri
47% · 218 games54% · 169 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 79%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2