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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 39 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 31 game
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Ceb · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bzm · 22 games
59%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 47 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 40 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
431 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
415 picks · 457 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 834 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 761 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 530 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 511 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 600 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total79% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
OG 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTimado
47% · 57 games47% · 215 games
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 201 game52% · 36 games
DazzleSupream^
Dazzle
Doom
DoomWisper
58% · 135 games47% · 166 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Mirana
MiranaAri
54% · 109 games50% · 231 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
49% · 232 games46% · 86 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct56:30
OG 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 50:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTimado
54% · 65 games57% · 63 games
ClinkzUlnit
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
46% · 106 games48% · 207 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Razor
Razorbzm
47% · 141 game49% · 262 games
Dragon KnightForce
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 177 games51% · 34 games
VenomancerNARMAN
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 216 games46% · 139 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct46:18
OG 70%MOUZ 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
51% · 66 games59% · 43 games
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
51% · 193 games52% · 328 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
55% · 161 game48% · 253 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressAri
49% · 230 games43% · 109 games
SlardarForce
Slardar
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
55% · 232 games40% · 149 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 79%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3