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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 26 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 13 games
77%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 26 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 601 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
386 picks · 418 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 470 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 409 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 595 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 342 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 793 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
OG 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
52% · 170 games52% · 191 game
Dragon KnightUlnit
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
57% · 127 games53% · 193 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
46% · 130 games50% · 134 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaxNova
44% · 137 games45% · 150 games
SnapfireImmersion
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusAri
53% · 134 games50% · 30 games
Ogre MagiTobi
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct31:44
OG 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
46% · 233 games51% · 211 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
45% · 129 games45% · 288 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
59% · 117 games51% · 177 games
Sand KingSupream^
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderAri
52% · 257 games48% · 305 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
52% · 284 games54% · 39 games
LichTobi
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2