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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 18 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 15 games
53%

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
407 picks · 368 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 884 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
308 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 242 bans
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 805 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 688 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
OG 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
55% · 46 games41% · 137 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
52% · 150 games53% · 96 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
48% · 287 games56% · 129 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
49% · 152 games50% · 157 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixLelis
49% · 235 games49% · 351 game
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed42:17
OG 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by OG in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
47% · 265 games59% · 297 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
43% · 105 games55% · 120 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
45% · 414 games53% · 243 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorDaze
46% · 201 game57% · 270 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
46% · 276 games49% · 331 game
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct25:17
OG 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
46% · 150 games56% · 8 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckStojkov
45% · 250 games51% · 276 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
57% · 111 games52% · 232 games
EarthshakerMidOne
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
47% · 152 games55% · 19 games
Techiesyamich
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLelis
50% · 83 games48% · 211 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3