BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 21 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Marssignature
Force · 20 games
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 28 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
606 picks · 939 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 435 bans
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 646 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
443 picks · 954 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 655 bans
Mars
393 picks · 529 bans
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
OG 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Dragon KnightYopaj
Underlordpma
BrewmasterForce
Ember SpiritNiku
TinyTims
HoodwinkZayac
JakiroSkem
LargoRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1