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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 29 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 37 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 28 games
43%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 657 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 417 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 497 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
382 picks · 169 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 738 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
328 picks · 499 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 163 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 611 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:28
OG 70%Natus Vincere Junior 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
48% · 237 games48% · 108 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
44% · 76 games35% · 17 games
Arc WardenNiku
Arc Warden
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
60% · 134 games54% · 208 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeb
54% · 86 games44% · 295 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
51% · 214 games51% · 119 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed21:34
OG 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
48% · 100 games49% · 203 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
50% · 365 games55% · 348 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomWisper
49% · 189 games57% · 293 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
43% · 245 games53% · 237 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickAri
46% · 334 games50% · 152 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 82%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2