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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 7 games
86%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1009 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 584 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
339 picks · 177 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 527 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 283 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:47
OG 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaana
51% · 29 games56% · 35 games
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCeb
38% · 29 games53% · 53 games
TinyMiracle-
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTopson
little data46% · 35 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
58% · 34 games58% · 36 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSaksa
41% · 71 game63% · 4 games
WarlockKuroKy
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed17:50
OG 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTopson
62% · 17 games58% · 39 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordCeb
39% · 28 games52% · 22 games
SpectreiLTW
Spectre
Juggernaut
Juggernautana
45% · 100 games53% · 57 games
TinyMiracle-
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
36% · 57 games58% · 36 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Enchantress
Enchantressn0tail
50% · 46 games57% · 94 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2