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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
29%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
78%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
GH · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
465 picks · 307 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
424 picks · 528 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
373 picks · 565 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 508 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
295 picks · 494 bans
51%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
276 picks · 512 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
258 picks · 348 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 115 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
OG 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
55% · 178 games49% · 134 games
GyrocopteriLTW
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
44% · 267 games53% · 148 games
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
44% · 116 games54% · 190 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaiga
53% · 52 games46% · 115 games
Earth SpiritGH
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMisha
49% · 130 games54% · 156 games
WeaverKuroKy
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct49:30
OG 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
59% · 179 games45% · 167 games
MedusaiLTW
Medusa
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 316 games51% · 214 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYuragi
45% · 28 games52% · 133 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
47% · 125 games45% · 155 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMisha
58% · 72 games40% · 51 game
JakiroKuroKy
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2