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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 33 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 29 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
46%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
54%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 12 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 679 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
415 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 541 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 424 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 573 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
346 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 639 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 840 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:34
OG 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 53:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 115 games53% · 69 games
Chaos KnightMiracle-
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
50% · 158 games50% · 200 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 97 games46% · 60 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
51% · 127 games45% · 31 game
Witch DoctorKuroKy
Witch Doctor
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeb
58% · 60 games46% · 197 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed10:27
OG 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightTimado
45% · 48 games51% · 150 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
53% · 175 games45% · 132 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Axe
AxeWisper
44% · 46 games53% · 49 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
44% · 98 games49% · 14 games
Witch DoctorKuroKy
Witch Doctor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
56% · 121 game55% · 143 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct39:15
OG 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
45% · 208 games47% · 104 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Ursa
UrsaTimado
49% · 60 games47% · 144 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
57% · 112 games51% · 211 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Weaver
WeaverCeb
54% · 170 games34% · 18 games
WarlockKuroKy
Warlock
Pudge
PudgeAri
56% · 55 games49% · 128 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 85%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3