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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 12 games
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 30 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 23 games
39%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 634 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 248 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 850 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
378 picks · 435 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 562 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 327 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 831 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total77% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
OG 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShad
54% · 274 games50% · 102 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
52% · 174 games43% · 189 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
52% · 126 games41% · 308 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
53% · 251 game47% · 23 games
IoGH
Io
Bane
BaneDaze
64% · 46 games48% · 249 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed30:13
OG 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomShad
52% · 197 games55% · 64 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
49% · 101 game47% · 219 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingStormstormer
56% · 161 game54% · 113 games
Naga SirenGH
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
54% · 163 games45% · 208 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 254 games44% · 272 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct14:30
OG 34%Nigma Galaxy 66%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
53% · 167 games48% · 107 games
SvenGhost
Sven
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
55% · 42 gameslittle data
Arc WardenSumaiL
Arc Warden
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
51% · 80 games50% · 218 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
44% · 207 games57% · 84 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
52% · 196 games44% · 283 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 77%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3