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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 27 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 18 games
33%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 23 games
30%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
No!ob · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
652 picks · 821 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 589 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 404 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
460 picks · 310 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1066 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 692 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 619 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
378 picks · 982 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
OG 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNatsumi
49% · 266 games53% · 335 games
Ursarincyq
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
42% · 141 game57% · 450 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
46% · 240 games55% · 158 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Jakiro
JakiroSkem
47% · 747 games49% · 636 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 613 games55% · 428 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed34:18
OG 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
49% · 165 games47% · 142 games
Morphlingrincyq
Morphling
Tiny
TinyYopaj
49% · 639 games47% · 156 games
BrewmasterDavai
Brewmaster
Underlord
UnderlordForce
54% · 283 games53% · 413 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSkem
53% · 497 games49% · 688 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerTims
50% · 403 games48% · 588 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2