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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Saksa · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
88%
Razor
Razorsignature
Topson · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
88%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 7 games
57%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 22 games
41%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 548 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
334 picks · 258 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
316 picks · 713 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 759 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 386 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
236 picks · 154 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 329 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
OG 64%Spider Pigzs 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
54% · 112 games43% · 163 games
GyrocopterThuG
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
51% · 103 games47% · 144 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 265 games57% · 97 games
Spirit BreakerFunn1k
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
55% · 74 games49% · 169 games
IoOmaR
Io
Bane
BaneMisha
53% · 187 games47% · 168 games
Disruptordnz
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed15:39
OG 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
47% · 156 games55% · 106 games
Queen of PainThuG
Queen of Pain
Puck
Puckbzm
48% · 292 games51% · 250 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
46% · 159 games52% · 154 games
ViperFunn1k
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
49% · 175 games45% · 325 games
Snapfirednz
Snapfire
Lion
LionMisha
51% · 385 games55% · 332 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct42:30
OG 59%Spider Pigzs 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsATF
40% · 317 games58% · 192 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaYuragi
38% · 109 games59% · 161 game
Templar AssassinThuG
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
44% · 177 games59% · 217 games
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireTaiga
45% · 190 games54% · 113 games
Treant Protectordnz
Treant Protector
Bane
BaneMisha
46% · 159 games56% · 269 games
WeaverOmaR
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3