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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
79%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 13 games
77%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 508 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
502 picks · 983 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
410 picks · 524 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
387 picks · 201 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
384 picks · 692 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 315 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
296 picks · 314 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
289 picks · 619 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:35
OG 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
54% · 200 games56% · 75 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
49% · 198 games47% · 35 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
49% · 126 games47% · 77 games
EnigmaXxs
Enigma
Abaddon
AbaddonATF
50% · 48 games50% · 373 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
49% · 50 games45% · 62 games
DazzleFantasy
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed16:17
OG 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by OG in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
53% · 230 games56% · 212 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuragi
56% · 151 game43% · 159 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 250 games50% · 128 games
Faceless VoidMonet
Faceless Void
Elder Titan
Elder TitanCeb
60% · 64 games54% · 59 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernTaiga
36% · 146 games47% · 283 games
SnapfireFantasy
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed30:51
OG 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Aster in 51:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuragi
45% · 92 games51% · 107 games
Faceless VoidMonet
Faceless Void
Puck
Puckbzm
51% · 226 games48% · 136 games
ZeusOri
Zeus
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 143 games51% · 83 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
50% · 109 games52% · 182 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskTaiga
50% · 77 games55% · 139 games
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 50%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3