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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 32 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
48%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 38 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
76%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 20 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
606 picks · 302 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
582 picks · 488 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
565 picks · 705 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 319 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
505 picks · 755 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
498 picks · 566 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 81%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
OG 30%Team Falcons 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
54% · 361 game53% · 514 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYopaj
51% · 31 game57% · 336 games
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsForce
45% · 287 games50% · 401 game
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskTims
49% · 443 games48% · 112 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroSkem
48% · 462 games46% · 221 game
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct35:45
OG 30%Team Falcons 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
49% · 412 games54% · 221 game
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
46% · 511 games52% · 274 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeForce
50% · 254 games52% · 287 games
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerSkem
56% · 61 game47% · 360 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageTims
49% · 113 games47% · 209 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2