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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 16 games
88%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bzm · 10 games
70%

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 12 games
42%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 10 games
60%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 881 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 599 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 477 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 221 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
299 picks · 356 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total65% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
OG 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
54% · 225 games44% · 225 games
Lunaana
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
51% · 214 games56% · 114 games
Lycanzai
Lycan
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightATF
48% · 199 games51% · 261 game
Keeper of the LightmiCKe
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixTaiga
55% · 114 games46% · 461 game
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Bane
BaneMisha
54% · 355 games38% · 46 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct44:22
OG 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenYuragi
57% · 3 games45% · 323 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
55% · 218 games44% · 80 games
Juggernautana
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
45% · 191 game48% · 63 games
Vengeful Spiritzai
Vengeful Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixTaiga
55% · 140 games50% · 272 games
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneMisha
60% · 387 games45% · 201 game
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 65%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2