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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 25 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 17 games
71%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 18 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 17 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 375 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
476 picks · 687 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
315 picks · 529 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 466 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
276 picks · 648 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
268 picks · 858 bans
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 374 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 374 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
OG 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuragi
63% · 55 games48% · 60 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
44% · 128 games57% · 20 games
Drow RangerMATUMBAMAN
Drow Ranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
52% · 45 games54% · 113 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTaiga
46% · 67 games50% · 99 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Lich
LichMisha
43% · 61 game46% · 64 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Game 2prediction correct16:39
OG 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYuragi
44% · 32 games53% · 129 games
BloodseekerMATUMBAMAN
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
45% · 144 games56% · 139 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Huskar
HuskarATF
49% · 8 games49% · 60 games
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfireMisha
52% · 195 games50% · 83 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Tiny
TinyTaiga
49% · 228 games52% · 196 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2