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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 25 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 22 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daze · 18 games
44%

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
764 picks · 358 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 610 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
555 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
456 picks · 524 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 270 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 732 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1146 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
435 picks · 269 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:28
OG 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:05:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
50% · 135 games45% · 285 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYopaj
49% · 336 games47% · 180 games
MarcimiCKe
Marci
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
51% · 177 games52% · 207 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
42% · 377 games48% · 362 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerSkem
59% · 150 games57% · 141 game
BaneBoxi
Bane
Game 2prediction missed38:25
OG 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
48% · 202 games56% · 118 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
52% · 284 games47% · 33 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
49% · 223 games53% · 326 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
42% · 188 games48% · 393 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
53% · 291 game50% · 318 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct26:19
OG 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
53% · 188 games50% · 478 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
50% · 335 games51% · 146 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Mars
MarsForce
42% · 246 games47% · 483 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroTims
51% · 323 games55% · 88 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Tusk
TuskSkem
53% · 373 games50% · 270 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3