Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Secretloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Snapfire
Saksa · 12 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
Bane
Misha · 9 games
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 7 games
Shadow Demon
Misha · 7 games
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
477 picks · 342 bans
Mars
438 picks · 625 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
366 picks · 813 bans
Snapfire
357 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 486 bans
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 425 bans
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:12
OG 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Wraith KingNisha
Puckbzm
KunkkaSumaiL
SlardarATF
Jakiroiceiceice
SnapfireTaiga
WeaverPuppey
BaneMisha
RubickYapzOr
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1