ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Enigma
DM · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 10 games
Enchantress
Ceb · 9 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
242 picks · 289 bans
Dark Willow
241 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
232 picks · 263 bans
Phoenix
208 picks · 270 bans
Treant Protector
206 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 420 bans
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 284 bans
Earthshaker
177 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
OG 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
Monkey KingCrystallis
Chaos KnightYuragi
Queen of PainMidOne
BatriderWisper
TidehunterBOOM
Nature's ProphetCeb
Ogre MagiPuppey
MagnusAri
Vengeful Spirityamich
Game 2prediction correct36:25
OG 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverYuragi
RazorCrystallis
BristlebackWisper
KunkkaMidOne
Pangolierbzm
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
MagnusAri
ChenPuppey
TuskCeb
Treant Protectoryamich
Game 3prediction missed16:38
OG 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuragi
Drow RangerCrystallis
Dark SeerWisper
Primal BeastBOOM
Kunkkabzm
PangolierMidOne
PugnaCeb
Treant ProtectorPuppey
MagnusAri
Vengeful Spirityamich
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3