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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 19 games
37%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
45%

Team Secret

Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 13 games
92%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
479 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
391 picks · 806 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
360 picks · 534 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 811 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 309 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
343 picks · 391 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:52
OG 37%Team Secret 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 1:20:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
49% · 395 games53% · 255 games
DoomKiritych
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
45% · 401 game58% · 256 games
Monkey Kingre1bl
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
47% · 55 games45% · 420 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
51% · 292 games48% · 391 game
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
46% · 356 games58% · 177 games
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed40:6
OG 37%Team Secret 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaStormstormer
48% · 211 games50% · 190 games
DoomKiritych
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
46% · 151 game48% · 144 games
Monkey Kingre1bl
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritShad
51% · 86 games53% · 18 games
AxeCloud
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
49% · 192 games49% · 247 games
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
46% · 58 games61% · 99 games
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 67%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2