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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 24 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 19 games
32%

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 30 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
76%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
672 picks · 831 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 600 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 418 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 628 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:32
OG 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYopaj
48% · 515 games50% · 307 games
Shadow FiendYatoro
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorNatsumi
49% · 123 games45% · 400 games
Void SpiritLarl
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
50% · 133 games49% · 231 game
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenSkem
55% · 194 games54% · 287 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyTims
49% · 412 games50% · 152 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct13:27
OG 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
50% · 209 games45% · 108 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYopaj
46% · 374 games52% · 374 games
BristlebackCollapse
Bristleback
Underlord
UnderlordForce
45% · 185 games52% · 227 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
54% · 313 games57% · 359 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskSkem
50% · 474 games50% · 487 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2