Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Snapfire
Saksa · 11 games
Lion
Misha · 9 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Clinkz
SumaiL · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
373 picks · 272 bans
Mars
369 picks · 533 bans
Snapfire
312 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 715 bans
Queen of Pain
264 picks · 336 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 155 bans
Io
226 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:19
OG 37%Team Tickles 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by OG in 34:13.
Game 2prediction correct32:38
OG 37%Team Tickles 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 37:53.
Game 3prediction correct16:30
OG 37%Team Tickles 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 34:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 63%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3