The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Undyingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Topson · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
Elder Titan
n0tail · 7 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 174 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
278 picks · 545 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
253 picks · 88 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
229 picks · 389 bans
Luna
224 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:8
OG 47%Team Undying 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Undying — the game was taken by OG in 19:32.
Game 2prediction correct29:35
OG 47%Team Undying 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 48:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2