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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 20 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 19 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
79%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 13 games
46%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 31 game
74%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
81%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 16 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
484 picks · 986 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 502 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
363 picks · 675 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 547 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
313 picks · 287 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 633 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
OG 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYuragi
49% · 83 games55% · 132 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Invoker
Invokerbzm
47% · 162 games52% · 138 games
SnapfireSacred
Snapfire
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
47% · 140 games53% · 177 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
35% · 35 games46% · 40 games
DazzlePanda
Dazzle
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
59% · 67 games
Game 2prediction correct33:17
OG 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuragi
52% · 113 games55% · 164 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 206 games49% · 196 games
SnapfireSacred
Snapfire
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightATF
46% · 123 games56% · 103 games
ViperPanda
Viper
Chen
ChenTaiga
46% · 48 games46% · 79 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
52% · 52 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2