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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 23 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 20 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 17 games
76%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 16 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Ceb · 15 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 23 games
70%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 19 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pakazs · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
731 picks · 566 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
520 picks · 1048 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 616 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 179 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
325 picks · 376 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
323 picks · 615 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total50% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:22
OG 49%Thunder Awaken 51%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by OG in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
48% · 284 games52% · 124 games
Nature's ProphetPakazs
Nature's Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerbzm
54% · 43 games50% · 181 game
TimbersawSacred
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 424 games48% · 398 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Viper
ViperTaiga
51% · 157 games47% · 228 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickChuvash
48% · 186 games53% · 163 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct32:38
OG 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
54% · 297 games47% · 187 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
55% · 277 games52% · 480 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Razor
RazorATF
50% · 284 games47% · 295 games
KunkkaSacred
Kunkka
Io
IoTaiga
52% · 309 games44% · 382 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkChuvash
49% · 232 games50% · 55 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct42:25
OG 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarATF
66% · 14 games43% · 129 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYuragi
55% · 328 games51% · 212 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
52% · 318 games47% · 347 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
54% · 64 games44% · 38 games
DazzlePanda
Dazzle
Undying
UndyingTaiga
52% · 112 games43% · 110 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 50%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3