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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNL DOTAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
27%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shad · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 10 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
534 picks · 558 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 388 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 514 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 714 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 197 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 588 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:12
OG 49%TNL DOTA 51%
The model gave 51% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by OG in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShad
55% · 120 games43% · 166 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStormstormer
49% · 57 games50% · 124 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Axe
AxeMikSa`
52% · 81 game43% · 263 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaLelis
59% · 138 games51% · 104 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
51% · 297 games48% · 36 games
Dazzleflacko
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed40:28
OG 46%TNL DOTA 54%
The model gave 54% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by OG in 56:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
57% · 94 games58% · 63 games
Lifestealeryowaai
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShad
50% · 153 games50% · 157 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStormstormer
35% · 46 games49% · 275 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
54% · 344 games45% · 128 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Windranger
WindrangerDaze
46% · 103 games52% · 117 games
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 52%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2